Petronas Dagangan Berhad

Financial Financial Revenue PBT Net Profit EPS Dividend NTA Year Quarter (RM,000) (RM,000) (RM,000) (Cent) (Cent) (RM) 2014 3 8,226,648 223,629 160,399 16.1 12 4.89 2014 2 8,367,968 250,787 185,649 18.7 14 4.86 2014 1 8,293,564 223,137 155,079 15.6 12 4.8 2013 4 8,385,988 193,784 151,321 15.2 17.5 4.82 2013 3 8,412,061 315,647 226,209 22.8 17.5 4.85 2013 2 7,924,901 273,041 197,127 19.8 17.5 4.88 2013 1 7,618,972 326,969 237,097 23.9 17.5 5.08
How do you value Petronas Dagangan? 2014 EPS: 15.6(Q1) + 18.7(Q2) +16.1(Q3) + 16.1(Q4, Forecast) = 66.5 cents IF one wish for a 10% earning yield, the price = 0.665/0.1 = RM6.65 IF one wish for a 5% earning yield, the price = 0.665/0.05 = RM13.30 2014 DPS: 12(Q1) + 14(Q2) + 12(Q3) + 12(Q4, Forecast) = 50 cents IF one wish for a 6% dividend yield, the price = 0.50/0.06 = RM8.33 IF one wish for a 3% dividend yield, the price = 0.50/0.03 = RM16.67
Long term 10 year outlook, MR. Optimistic (10% growth) hunting for 15% CAGR:
EPS Growth DPO DPS (Cent) (%) (%) (Cent) 0 66.5 10.00% 0.75 50 1 73.2 10.00% 0.75 55 2 80.5 10.00% 0.75 60 3 88.5 10.00% 0.75 66 4 97.4 10.00% 0.75 73 5 107.1 10.00% 0.75 80 6 117.8 10.00% 0.75 88 7 129.6 10.00% 0.75 97 8 142.5 10.00% 0.75 107 9 156.8 10.00% 0.75 118 10 172.5 10.00% 0.75 129 Total 924 Dividend yield= 3% Price= RM 43.12 Total Dividend= RM 9.24 Total= RM 52.36 Today's Buy Price= RM 12.94 MR. Pessimistic (5% growth) hunting for 15% CAGR:

	EPS	Growth	DPO	DPS
	(Cent)	(%)	(%)	(Cent)
0	66.5	5.00%	0.75	50
1	69.8	5.00%	0.75	52
2	73.3	5.00%	0.75	55
3	77.0	5.00%	0.75	58
4	80.8	5.00%	0.75	61
5	84.9	5.00%	0.75	64
6	89.1	5.00%	0.75	67
7	93.6	5.00%	0.75	70
8	98.3	5.00%	0.75	74
9	103.2	5.00%	0.75	77
10	108.3	5.00%	0.75	81
Total				709
Dividend yield=				3%
Price=			RM	27.08
Total Dividend=			RM	7.09
Total=			RM	34.17
Today's Buy Price=			RM	8.45

Current Price (27-Jan 2015): RM 17.20


So, how do you value Petronas Dagangan?